Regardless of which party leader moves into Downing Street at the next general election, one certainty is that they will have to grapple with the same grim reality when it comes to the climate – prolonged periods of extreme weather are here to stay.
With the UK experiencing a record-breaking heatwave in May and warnings of a Super El Niño weather phenomenon set to inflict chaos across the globe later this year, climate change is set to disrupt supply chains, increase flooding risks and impact harvests.
Since its conception in 2021, Reform UK has established itself as the anti-climate change party, with its leader Nigel Farage consistently vowing to scrap net zero targets, describing wind energy as “economic insanity” and calling for renewed drilling in the North Sea oil and gas fields.
Yet experts have warned that this stance could result in future problems and “tensions” for the right-wing party. While a YouGov poll found that only 28 to 33 per cent of Reform voters are concerned about climate change, a large percentage of their voters reside in areas which are set to be disproportionately affected by its impact.
Research by Global Witness has shown that eight out of 10 of England’s most flood-prone constituencies are projected to vote in a Reform MP at the next election, which has already proven true in Boston and Skegness with deputy leader Richard Tice elected as their MP in 2024.
This includes South Holland the Deepings, Goole and Pocklington, North East Cambridgeshire, Louth and Horncastle, Selby, Runnymede and Weybridge, Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes, Doncaster North, Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme.
According to the Environment Agency, 91 per cent of buildings within Mr Tice’s constituency are facing a flood risk, with a local council boss warning that 60,000 people are at risk unless the Lincolnshire coastal defences are improved.
A report published by the county council last year found that the sea defences were degrading at a rate that will render them ineffective by 2040, and could see tidal flooding of areas up to 15km inland.
Mr Tice has previously said that the idea of human-made climate change was “garbage”, but in November rowed back on this assertion and said humans have “possibly” impacted the climate, but only “modestly”.
Last May, a newly elected Reform UK council abolished a flooding committee in Lincolnshire, despite the country suffering some of its worst flooding in its history in Storm Babet in 2023.
Alasdair Johnstone, of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), warned that Reform’s stance on green issues could eventually lead to “tensions” with their voters.
He noted that while Mr Farage was gaining momentum in the east of England, those regions have greatly profited from green industries, attracting multi-billion pound investments in offshore wind, green hydrogen, and nuclear energy such as Sizewell C.
Last September, Luke Campbell, the Reform mayor for Hull and Yorkshire, said he was “all for” cleaner air and green energy if it provided jobs, in what was widely seen as a differing stance from his party’s pledge to tax the renewables sector.
Polling conducted in March by Persuasion UK also found that 46 per cent of all Reform curious voters think it is “not yet too late to avoid the worst impacts of climate change”.
Flash flooding in Ipswich at the beginning of June also caused travel chaos, with the downpours leaving parts of Lowestoft under water.
The incident came just as the Reform UK-led Suffolk County Council declared it would scrap the previous administration's climate change emergency declaration, which vowed to achieve net zero by 2030.
Martin Cook, the Labour leader of the council, said:”Zero-carbon electricity generation is a huge part of our local economy here in Suffolk.
“The Sizewell nuclear site is one of the top ten generators of business rates nationwide and construction of Sizewell C will directly support 10,000 jobs on site and 70,000 more in the supply chain. Some of the UK’s largest wind farms are serviced from here and connect into the National Grid through Suffolk.
“In announcing plans to switch Suffolk County Council’s electricity supply contract to the cheapest available Reform UK show they are willing to devalue our county’s economy to save just 2 per cent on the electricity bill. At a stroke they will give their electricity supplier license to start burning fossil fuels again, directly leading to the release of thousands of tonnes of CO2 per year.
He added: “Hadwen, the new leader of the Council puts great emphasis on the fact he is Felixstowe born and bred. He should perhaps reflect on the fact that 41 people lost their lives to coastal flooding in Felixstowe in 1953.
“While sea defences and early warning systems may have improved since then, global heating, sea level rises and his own actions pile up the risk of future tragedy.”
In response, Reform councillor Morgan Brobyn, the council’s cabinet member for food, waste and rural affairs, said they were reviewing “all inherited programmes and initiatives to ensure they are effective” and were focused on “evidence-based action”.
He added” “That said, I want to be clear: climate change and the protection of Suffolk’s environment are taken seriously. We recognise the very real impact of extreme weather on our communities.
“That is precisely why we have strengthened our approach by creating dedicated cabinet roles for coastal and rural affairs - ensuring these issues receive focused attention, stronger local resilience planning, and practical action rather than symbolic commitments.”
Mr Johnstone also warned that Mr Farage’s party could receive pushback from the agriculture industry, with Defra data showing that farmers suffered their second worst harvest on record last year, after the warmest spring and summer and driest spring in over 100 years.
He said: “There’s also huge challenges farmers in those regions, given we’ve seen some of the worst harvests in record in the last couple of years. How Reform react both locally and nationally and how do they support the change in climate is going to be a huge question.”
“As far as I can see there’s no kind of strategy for that, i’ve not seen anything at all,” he added. “I don’t think they really have grasped that issue at all and set out any policy on what they would do.
“I think anything climate related is bundled into green nonsense in their minds ,when actually a lot of this stuff is very practical and real.”
Polling conducted by the ECIU around the local elections found that Reform voters were pulled towards the party by their stance on cost-of-living and immigration, with issues on net zero much further down the list.
Yet he warned that with the prospect of the highly disruptive El Niño extreme weather pattern set to return in September, the “climate crisis is set to feature a bigger part in public life” for any governing party.
Sam Alvis, an associate director at the Institute for Public Policy Research, said: “Extreme weather is a growing political problem in the UK.
“As we’ve seen in Valencia, Los Angeles and elsewhere, when increasingly severe and frequent climate impacts strike, populists are quick to exploit public anger over a lack of preparation, using it to advance their own agenda and weaken support for climate action more broadly.
“Climate impacts aren’t just abstract figures in an economic forecast, they are harming people here today and making it harder for governments to improve lives across the country.
“Extreme heat is affecting children’s exam performance, forcing NHS surgeries to be cancelled, and making it harder for farmers to grow food. It is no surprise that frustration is growing.”
The Independent has approached Reform UK for comment.
