Andy Burnham has barely had a week in Downing Street, and already the polls are moving.
A Survation poll published on Tuesday put Labour top with 26 per cent, up one percentage point, with Nigel Farage’s party trailing with 24 per cent, down two percentage points.
It follows a similar shift in polls from More in Common and YouGov – the first time in over a year Labour have led.
The timing isn’t an accident. Since becoming prime minister on 20 July, Mr Burnham has announced a new policy almost every day: a VAT cut on energy bills, the return of the £2 bus fare cap, £340 million to tackle rough sleeping, a 20 per cent business rates cut for pubs and music venues, and a Manchester-based “No 10 in the North” operation.
This week he’s gone further still, unveiling a shake-up of technical education – telling students that “Britain will value the hard hat every bit as much as the graduation cap” – alongside signals of tougher, “conditional” welfare reform, insisting he wants to “get really serious as a country at getting the welfare bill down.”
Polling expert Lord Hayward told The Independent the shift has “changed the discourse of British politics”, adding: “We are no longer talking about Reform becoming the government – in fact, there is an open question over whether they are the natural party of the right.” He said “there is no doubt there is a Burnham bounce and it has happened quicker than most of us expected.”
But Reform aren’t panicking – yet. A party spokesman insisted they’re “calm” about the polling swing, saying: “We expected Labour to go above us, we are calm about it. Let's see where everyone is by December.” He pointed out that Keir Starmer was once riding high in the polls too, before it all unravelled.
Burnham himself is playing it cautiously. Visiting Portsmouth, he said: “I wouldn't get carried away by any poll. I'm pleased to have made a start where hopefully I've connected with people.” He added: “I am talking a lot about Britain believing again and getting its hope back, and I’m not going to apologise for that. I think we should have a bit more of a spring in our step.”
So – is this a genuine turnaround for Labour, or a sugar rush that fades once the bills for all these pledges come due? Vote in our poll and tell us what you think in the comments below.
