Burnham’s only path to election victory is through pledging to rejoin the EU, research reveals

Andy Burnham’s best hope of winning the next election and stopping Nigel Farage is by committing to reversing Brexit and getting Britain to rejoin the European Union, new polling has revealed.

The revelation comes after Mr Burnham refused to rule out putting rejoining the EU in Labour’s manifesto at the next election when asked by The Independent on his recent trip to the United Nations in New York, having previously said he wants Britain back in the bloc.

The research by YouGov for a Best for Britain report across the 632 constituencies in Great Britain (excluding Northern Ireland) has revealed that Labour would win 321 seats, just five short of an absolute majority, if they pledge to rejoin the EU.

It would mean that Mr Burnham would have a “working majority” because of the fact that Sinn Fein MPs do not take up their seats, while the appointment of a Commons Speaker and deputies reduces the number needed for a majority.

But it would put pro-EU parties including the Lib Dems, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru along with Labour having a clear majority in parliament and nullify the threat from Mr Farage and Reform.

It follows similar MRP polling – which looks at how constituencies would vote – published by The Independent last week, which revealed only four constituencies in England, Wales and Scotland still support Brexit.

The polling suggests that Labour could get as few as 136 seats if it does not change its red lines on Brexit and sticks with the status quo with Reform UK on 300.

The number of seats for Labour increases to 256 with a commitment to join the customs union, 257 with a promise to join the single market and 321 if Mr Burnham pledges to rejoin the EU entirely.

Reform’s seats fall to 235 with Labour supporting the customs union reentry, 230 if Labour goes for the single market and just 191 if Mr Burnham backs fully rejoining the EU.

A promise of EU membership could see Labour unseat key Conservative MPs including Tory leader Kemi Badenoch (North West Essex) and shadow chancellor Andrew Griffith (Arundel and South Downs), and also Reform UK’s Robert Jenrick (Newark).

Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, which campaigns for UK-EU reintegration, said: “These numbers are a wake-up call for both the prime minister and Labour backbenchers in previously Leave-voting constituencies.

“EU membership is the only policy lever that takes Labour close to a majority at the next election and keeps the architects of Brexit out of power.

“Labour’s electoral strategists must get their heads around the irony that seats they are most concerned about losing to Reform UK are less winnable if they pursue a low-ambition EU reset.

“Public opinion has shifted, a majority of voters in each seat support EU membership, and – crucially – are prepared to vote tactically to achieve it.”

Best for Britain’s additional analysis on top of the central estimates of YouGov’s constituency-level MRP projections to reflect the practicalities of a general election (including tactical voting) and address the political and methodological limitations of hypothetical policy questions.

The findings come as the government shapes its policy on Europe ahead of the heavily delayed UK-EU summit, the Labour Party’s conference in Liverpool, and prime minister Andy Burnham’s upcoming speech in which he is expected to set out his ten-year vision for the country.

They also emerge as the first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland said the future of their nations belongs “in the European Union.”

Tom Brufatto, policy and research director at Best for Britain and lead author of the report, said: “These findings are the latest in a data series which clearly show that halfway houses will simply not do for voters, who want to return to Europe and all of the benefits it offers, or for Labour who are looking for manifesto entries.

“We have a prime minister who not only sees the damage caused by Brexit but the opportunity for his party to do things differently- that starts with a manifesto pledge to renew the UK’s membership of the EU.”