Why rugby league needs Tonga-Samoa World Cup final
With blow out wins and a convoluted format, the men's group stage at the 2026 Rugby League World Cup did little to dissuade cynics about the unhealthy state of the international game.
From Group A, Australia and New Zealand came through as expected and are widely tipped to face off in the final on 15 November.
But from the strange lands of Group B-C, two beacons of hope have emerged. Tonga will face New Zealand after winning all three group matches, before Samoa face Australia in a repeat of the 2022 final.
And if either goes all the way, it would be good for international rugby league, shaking up the game in the same way Wakefield's Grand Final win has for the Super League – proving there is still room for surprises in rugby league.
"Could this be a dress rehearsal for the final? I hope so," former Bradford Bulls head coach Matthew Elliott told BBC Radio 5 Sports Extra after Tonga and Samoa's riveting Group B-C match, won 20-18 by the Tongans. "I shouldn't say that out loud as an Aussie but I hope so."
History suggests this scenario is unlikely, but not impossible.
The first semi-final, New Zealand v Tonga, is a match with a dramatic recent history. Tonga beat New Zealand 25-14 in an epic Pacific Championships match two years ago to reach their first-ever elite tournament final.
Last year, their meeting was overshadowed by a head injury to Tonga back-rower Eli Katoa, who needed emergency brain surgery after receiving three separate concussions and has not played since.
Tonga were semi-finalists in 2017, winning their group after stunning New Zealand 28-22 in the group stage. In the last four they were only narrowly defeated by England, 20-18, scoring three tries in the final seven minutes to give the English a huge fright in their best previous World Cup effort.
'It was an absolute cracker'
Samoa have gone one further of course and were surprise runners-up four years ago having not previously gone beyond the quarter-finals since first appearing at the World Cup in 1995.
They were beaten 60-6 by England in their opener but fought through to the semi-finals, where they stunned the hosts 27-26 in a golden point win at Emirates Stadium.
At Old Trafford they were overpowered by Australia but not overawed, losing 30-10. In doing so Samoa became only the sixth different team to reach a men's final after Australia, New Zealand, Great Britain, England and France, in 16 editions.
Australia have won 10 of the last 11 World Cups, including the last three, with New Zealand winning the other.
Such dominance at the supposed peak of the sport, in a tournament reduced from 16 to 10 teams this year, indicates a gap growing between haves and have nots.
Of the outsiders, Samoa and Tonga can shake that up.
The teams met at the quarter-final stage of the last Rugby League World Cup, with Samoa winning a classic 20-18 in Warrington. Tonga won by the same scoreline three days ago, in similarly exhilarating fashion.
"The occasion was unbelievable," Samoa head coach Ben Gardiner said after the game. "I looked down at the start of the game and I've never seen so many people on the sidelines at a footy match in my life.
"It was a sensational occasion, and international rugby league is about that. It's about fanfare and it's about creating opportunities for our fans to come and watch our nations play. It was an absolute cracker."
'Five or 10 levels above NRL'
Not only are the Pacific islands bringing the colour and passion of their nations to the world stage, they are also bringing world-class quality.
Nine players featuring in the group game squads played some part in this year's State of Origin, an annual series between New South Wales and Queensland representative teams regarded as one of the pinnacles of world rugby league.
"I think that was about five or 10 levels above NRL tonight," Tonga half-back Isaiya Katoa told Premier Sports of the group match. "Every tackle felt like the first of the game. There are going to be some sore bodies out there.
"Something that goes so unnoticed is the impact Woolfy [Kristian Woolf] has as the coach. He cares about every single one of us. The reason you've got Jojo Fifita and Rob Toia [two of the State of Origin players] wanting to play for Tonga is because of the coach."
Both nations have Australians in charge. Gardiner has been in post since 2023, while Woolf has led Tonga since 2014 and overseen their remarkable rise in rugby league prominence.
Both have experience coaching in the NRL, and have brought the quality and professionalism of the world's best domestic league to bear fruit on their respective islands – with both talking about working on "emotional regulation" in big games.
They have also both been helped by an international eligibility system which is much more forgiving to smaller nations than in many other sports.
Since 2016, the IRL introduced a tier system for member nations: Australia, New Zealand and England are in tier one; all other full members are in tier two.
Under this system, players can elect to represent both a tier one and two nation but are permitted to represent only one nation in a calendar year or at a Rugby League World Cup.
This flexibility has allowed members of diaspora populations to represent their family heritage and national identities – particularly those with ancestors from Pacific islands, who may have had to move away in the past.
These connections mean that when those with Tongan and Samoan heritage do represent their historic countries, they do so with gusto.
'This is the pinnacle'
"I can't put it into words," Tonga prop Addin Fonua-Blake told BBC Radio 5 Sports Extra. "This is the pinnacle for me. Representing my people is something special.
"I just want to thank from the bottom of my heart all the supporters. You could feel it this whole week, the amount of support that we had, that both teams had. And it's only going to keep growing. What the supporters have done for this game, it's unheard of.
"A few years ago, we wouldn't even sell out a game out of Campbelltown and now we're sitting here on one of the biggest stages selling out, and it's only going to get bigger."
Both countries have also benefited from generous financial deals the likes of which English rugby league supporters want introduced for their team.
Australia's government in July announced, external it was committing A$250m (£130m) over 10 years to the Pacific Rugby League Partnership, designed to help create opportunities in Papua New Guinea, Tonga, Samoa and Fiji, and is being led by the Australian Rugby League Commission.
It is the kind of diversification rugby league badly needs, after a reduced and unbalanced World Cup which at times has struggled to live up to its name.
"The branding of the World Cup, I think that's wrong," former England international Ryan Hall told BBC Radio 5 Live. "The essence of any World Cup in any sport is, it's a festival of the sport.
"I'm not saying Rugby League could get 48 teams in the World Cup because that's not achievable, but certainly more than 10. It's meant to be a festival and showcasing to everyone of all levels of different countries who's eligible to play, get it out there.
"I'll talk about Italy in 2013. Italy don't play Rugby League too much. They managed to get a team full of people who love their heritage, based in the NRL, a lot of Australians, and they managed to beat England in a warm-up game. So don't tell me there's no countries out there, such as Italy, who cannot live up to displaying well in the World Cup and putting on an event."
If rugby league is to grow and the World Cup is to survive, it needs new blood to thrive. A world title for Tonga and Samoa would certainly help.
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