UK poll tracker: Latest voting intention ahead of Holborn and St Pancras by-election

Voters in north London will go to the polls tomorrow to decide who will succeed Sir Keir Starmer as the MP for Holborn and St Pancras.

The fight for the former PM’s seat is set to be a close contest, with Green leader Zack Polanski throwing his hat in the ring to become an MP for the first time.

Based on previous results, the odds favour Labour’s candidate, Camden council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali. Sir Keir won the seat with just under half the vote share in 2024, and it has been a Labour stronghold since the 1980s.

But this picture may not be clear-cut, new polling has shown. Figures from YouGov have revealed that Londoners are split on who they would support in a two-horse race between Labour and the Greens, at 28 points to 26.

It is a marked difference from the national picture, where approval for Labour continues to grow. The party has taken a five-point lead according to the latest polling by YouGov, marking the highest level of popularity since early 2025.

Government sources have indicated that they are interpreting the Holborn contest as a “test run” for an early general election. Labour strategists told The Independent last month that they hope the by-election will give a clear indication of whether the party’s new leadership has warded off the threat of the Greens.

Labour now sits on around 27 per cent approval, an average of results from top pollsters shows.

The Greens, meanwhile, have plateaued at an average 10 points approval, down dramatically from a peak of 14 in early 2026. This now puts the party at the bottom of the five leading parties, having been overtaken again by the Lib Dems.

Recent YouGov figures indicate that Mr Burnham may be winning back voters who may have previously turned away from it under the leadership of Sir Keir Starmer over issues like Gaza and welfare spending.

Only 49 per cent of former Labour voters said they would support the party when the former prime minister stood down in June – a figure that has risen to 63 per cent in the latest poll.

There has also been a notable boost among 18- to 24-year-olds under Mr Burnham, with support rising from 14 per cent to 27 per cent over the same time period.

Labour also continues to widen its gap with Reform, which is still in second place according to most pollsters. Despite the party’s gains in the devolved and local elections this May, controversies over donations and rising support for Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain are thought to be turning voters away.

The considerable dip in support for the party mirrors a fall in popularity for Mr Farage. The party leader’s latest favourability rating sits at a low of-36 this month according to one pollster – down from its peak of -27 last summer.

The Conservatives meanwhile have seen a slight bump in support since Mr Burnham’s coronation, rising to an average of 20 points since June.

Labour’s rise in popularity under the new prime minister has prompted calls for an early election which, if he won, would secure him a mandate for at least five years to deliver the bold changes he has pledged as prime minister.

Mr Burnham has said he wants to “knock dead” the idea, although Kemi Badenoch and Ed Davey have both indicated they are making preparations for the possibility.

Pollsters have also warned there would be no benefit in calling an early contest for the Labour leader, with some arguing the so-called “Burnham bounce” may already have peaked.

It would also be tricky timing for Nigel Farage, who still faces the results of a parliamentary standards investigation now that he has returned to Westminster.