In two weeks’ time, the people of Makerfield will head to the polls in what could be the most important by-election in recent history.
The outcome of the contest – triggered by the resignation of Labour MP and former minister Josh Simons – will likely determine who will be Britain’s prime minister in the years to come.
Polls suggest it will be a tight race between Labour candidate Andy Burnham and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon.
If the mayor of Manchester claims victory, it is widely believed he’ll return to parliament to launch an official challenge for Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership.
If Nigel Farage’s party wins however, the leadership contest may be triggered by those already in parliament, such as former health secretary Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner.
Above all, a Reform UK win in Makerfield – which has always had a Labour MP – would strongly indicate a wipeout in the party’s former strongholds at the next general election, paving the way for a Farage premiership.
But the candidates will also be challenged by other parties, including Rupert Lowe’s Restore UK, which appeared to be splitting the right-wing vote in the first and only constituency poll so far.
Meanwhile, the Green Party has decided to field a candidate - despite calls from some senior figures to step aside.
As the candidates prepare to go head-to-head at hustings on Thursday, here is a look at the main players:
Former cabinet minister Andy Burnham has framed his candidacy in Makerfield as an opportunity for voters to "change Labour".
It was the resignation of his ally, former minister Josh Simons, to allow Mr Burnham a route back to parliament that kicked off the by-election.
It came after nearly 100 Labour MPs called on Sir Keir to resign as prime minister following disastrous local election results, sparking intense speculation of an imminent leadership contest that the Manchester mayor would have to return to Westminster for to take part in.
He is hoping that a victory over Reform UK would prove to his party that he would be capable of beating Mr Farage’s party in a general election.
The first Makerfield by-election poll placed Mr Burnham in the lead ahead of Mr Kenyon – by only three points.
Speaking at a community and sports club in the constituency at the launch of his campaign, Mr Burnham insisted his bid to return to parliament would not be “business as usual”, and that it would instead force Westminster to “focus on the places it usually looks past”.
Reform’s candidate is Robert Kenyon, a local plumber who said he is “ready to take on the King of the North”.
He has performed well in the first constituency poll, trailing Mr Burnham by just three points in the historic Labour stronghold.
He also ran as Reform’s candidate in the constituency in the 2024 general election, where he lost by just 5,399 votes, while Reform comfortably won every ward in the constituency at this month’s local elections.
But since his campaign kicked off, he has been marred by controversy after a series of comments he made online emerged.
The Independent revealed that an account linked to Mr Kenyon wrote that women can’t “ref, drive or give directions” and declared: “I’m sexist, sorry but I am.” The account objectified European women’s bodies while saying English women “don’t care” and “just walk around with their fat bellies and odd shapes pushing a pram at 16 in their PJ’s”.
Previously revealed messages showed him making sexual comments about presenter Carol Vorderman and saying that Russia was “within their rights” to invade Crimea.
But a spokesperson for Reform UK did not dispute the comments but instead dismissed them as “locker room banter”.
They have instead claimed Mr Kenyon’s comments highlight how is “isn’t a polished, professional politician and doesn’t speak like one”.
“That’s precisely why he’ll be a straight-talking, effective voice for normal working people in Makerfield.”
Reform rival Restore Britain has decided to break out of its stronghold in Great Yarmouth and is fielding a candidate in the Makerfield by-election.
Rebecca Shepherd, 53, has been described by party leader Rupert Lowe as “understanding first-hand the pressures facing local businesses and working families across the area,” and has promised to “fight for the interests of the community, rather than political careers”.
The party did surprisingly well in the first constituency poll, appearing to have fractured the right-wing vote with seven points.
The party has enjoyed support from tech billionaire Elon Musk who has publicly backed Restore Britain a number of times on his X platform.
Lowe founded Restore after he was suspended from Reform UK last year, amid claims he had threatened then-party chairman Zia Yusuf. He denied the allegations, and the Crown Prosecution Service said no criminal charges would be brought against him in relation to alleged threats towards Mr Yusuf.
He said there were “millions of Brits who are with us” and “Farage can arrogantly insult me over and over, but he has never been more wrong”.
However, Restore’s candidate us not included in the line up for the BBC’s Question Time Makerfield by-election special.
Mr Lowe hit out at the decision, but a BBC spokesperson said the inclusion fo five parties is based on party’s “past and current electoral support”.
The Green Party gained a huge boost in the polls after the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year, which saw their candidate Hannah Spencer beat both Reform UK and Labour in the historic contest.
But their bid to repeat success in Makerfield has been hampered by candidacy issues and party infighting.
Manchester city councillor Sarah Wakefield will now contest the June 18 vote, stating the party’s message is that "the future can be better and fairer than the failed status quo”.
Her selection comes after former Green candidate Chris Kennedy apologised following reports he had shared a post describing an attack on Jewish ambulances in north London as a "false flag".
Ms Wakefield is currently on maternity leave from her role as a charity director and has prior experience in retail, with a particular focus on sustainable food.
The Conservative candidate is the former mayor of Wigan, Michael Winstanley, who party leader Kemi Badenoch said would “make an excellent champion of the area having lived in, worked in and represented the local community for years”.
Speaking on BBC Radio Manchester this week, Mr Winstanley claimed people in the constituency felt "resentful" about the contest and felt like “political pawns”.
"I care about this constituency and I actually want to... have an authentic voice that can represent them down at Westminster,” he said.
Announcing his candidacy, Mrs Badenoch acknowledged calls from some for the Conservatives to stand aside in the by-election.
“That will never happen,” she wrote on X. “The people of Makerfield and Britain deserve the opportunity to vote for a party that is committed to reducing the welfare bill, that champions business and understands the perils of nationalisation, that is open and transparent about who it gets its donations from and doesn't try to hide millions in crypto funding.”
But the party is very unlikely to win the contest, gaining just 2 per cent of the vote in early polling.
Councillor Jake Austin has been announced as the Liberal Democrat candidate in the Makerfield by-election.
Mr Austin has gone head-to-head with Mr Burnham before, as he was also the Lib Dem candidate in the Greater Manchester mayorality election in 2024.
Born in Wigan, the party says Mr Austin will show residents “what a committed local champion looks like - one who isn’t caught up in national leadership ambitions”.
“Voters in Makerfield deserve so much more than the failing Labour government or the divisive politics of Reform UK,” he said.
“We have a real opportunity to champion the issues that matter most to people: the cost of living, protecting our natural environment and supporting our local high streets and businesses.”
