Democrats have an identity crisis - it won't be an easy fix

James Stevens calls himself a democratic socialist. The 24-year-old film student is the type of Democrat who recalls watching the provocative left-wing internet commentator Hasan Piker six years ago, "before he became relevant in politics". Last year, James flew up from his home in Georgia to New York City to canvass for Zohran Mamdani's mayoral campaign.

His mother, Tamara, 56, is a loyal Democrat too. But of a different ilk. She grew up Republican then switched to the Democratic Party after seeing Barack Obama on Oprah. These days, she's a loyal party woman, championing reproductive rights, attending campaign rallies and donating to local candidates.

Both mother and son want Democrats to win control of Congress at next Tuesday's midterm elections, but they don't entirely agree on what they want their Democratic Party to be.

"I'm very sick of how compromising Democrats are to Republican policies that don't benefit a large group of people," James told me, as his mother looked on. "There needs to be a bold vision for the Democrats," he says, arguing that the party should adopt policies affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), a left-wing splinter group. In his view, that means anti-Zionism, getting corporate money out of politics, and government-run free healthcare.

The conventional wisdom in Washington is that Democrats are well-positioned to take control of the House, and possibly even the Senate, after the vote next week.

Underlying conditions are in Democrats' favour – Republican US President Donald Trump's approval rating is at a record low for a president heading into a midterm, comparable to George W Bush in his final term in 2006; the Iran war still isn't over and it's proving unpopular with American voters; and this has led to higher gas prices, which are frustrating an electorate that is already worried about the cost of living. Traditionally, the midterms are a referendum on a sitting president. In 18 of the last 20 US midterm elections, the party in power has lost seats in the House.

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And yet despite those circumstances, the Democratic Party is also unpopular nationwide. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows the American public sees the Democrats as only marginally better than the Republicans. Recent polls show the Democratic Party still has a net unfavourability rating among Americans. Political analysts say that if the Republicans manage to buck the trend and survive these midterms, one key reason is that the Democratic Party (or the Democratic brand) is disliked by a majority of American voters too.

Behind the headlines of which party or which candidates win this Tuesday, there's also a story this election season about Democratic identity. This is a fight between institutionalists and reformists, of people who want incremental change and those who demand root-and-branch transformation. The question is, who will win out in the long run?

I've covered every national US election in the past dozen years and this is an unusual one. When I was out interviewing voters ahead of the 2018 midterms during Donald Trump's first term, I was struck by how united many Democratic voters were in their opposition to the president. This time, I've noticed that under the facade of unity, there's a brewing fight.

There are persistent questions about what the Democratic Party stands for, and these divides erupted during the primaries this midterm cycle. "The identity of the party is pretty cloudy," said Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a centre-right think tank. "It's all centred on reaction to the Trump administration and taking advantage of what is a thermostatic reaction against the administration... Beyond that, there's all these different factions in the party."

Part of the reason for this Democratic infighting is that the party never had a chance to have this fight during the 2024 presidential race, with the sudden departure of Joe Biden months before the election and nomination of Kamala Harris.

Analysts agree that if Democrats make big wins on election night, it still won't answer deeper, unresolved questions as they try to keep their big tent together to corral votes in Congress or eye the 2028 presidency.

In simplistic terms, the divide is between the centrist, more moderate wing of the party and its left flank. But operatives and analysts say it's also a divide between institutionalists and those who want to completely upend the existing institution. Both feel they have a better read on what voters genuinely want.

Usamah Andrabi, of the Justice Democrats, a prominent left-wing group, blames the Democratic establishment for ushering in a Republican Congress and president. "And so I think the people who led us into this mess are simply not gonna be the ones who lead us out of it," he told me.

"The affordability crisis… is a massive one, and it's not going to be resolved by tinkering at the margins," he added. Instead, he insists,  it'll be solved through policies like universal healthcare and childcare, and redistributing money by cutting the Pentagon's budget to stop "endless wars". His organisation sprang up in 2017 to recruit and support the congressional members who became known as "the Squad", the furthest-left faction in the House, which includes members such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar.

Healthcare will be one of the main arenas in which this fight is likely to play out, says Carrie Dann, managing editor of the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that forecasts the competitiveness of races.

"There is a lot of appetite for, at the very least, more transparency, more understanding of why healthcare costs are so high," said Dann. " Take a bad step, break your leg, and a huge swathe of Americans would see their worlds turned upside down by that because of the healthcare system as it is."

Several Democratic candidates this election cycle have outlined ideas to lower "out-of-pocket" costs for those who already have health insurance - being hit with additional costs on top of regular insurance payments is a common feature of the American healthcare system. But there's another flank of the party that is fed up with incremental changes and wants a national healthcare system that is free at the point of use - Medicare for All.

Recent polling suggests a majority of Democrats favour this kind of healthcare system, but a majority of Republicans oppose it.

But some Democrats say there's nuance in the issue.

"People want to have universal healthcare, and they also want to be able to keep their health insurance," says Neera Tanden, Joe Biden's former domestic policy adviser, now CEO of the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank.

Mainstream establishment Democrats acknowledge that many people see healthcare as a right, but they insist that others strongly oppose a fully government-run programme, fearing lower standards of care, and insist on having the option of keeping their private health insurance.

Healthcare costs have gone up across the board - health insurance and out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, hospital expenses and prescription drug costs have all surged in recent years, rising faster than the rate of inflation. As medical expenses have increased, polls suggest the idea of universal healthcare isn't as outlandish as it once seemed, and this campaign cycle has shown that it's far less taboo for politicians to openly call for it.

Back in Georgia, it's an issue on which Tamara and James agree - they want universal healthcare.

But their most fundamental disagreement is over Israel. Tamara calls herself a Zionist. "My kids get mad at me for saying that," she said.

And they're hardly the only Democrats having this debate.

Dann, from the Cook Political Report, says one of the biggest lessons from this election cycle is that Democratic voters weren't just looking for candidates willing to fight Trump, but candidates willing to take on the establishment. Dann points to the key swing state of Michigan, where in the primary, Abdul El-Sayed - a fierce critic of Israel and its actions in Gaza - came out on top over the objections of the Democratic establishment.

"I think one reason for that was that he was not only talking about taking on Donald Trump, but taking on the Democratic establishment… the establishment in Washington writ large," she said. And part of that anti-establishment attitude is about US support for Israel.

Some who left the party in 2024 because they believe Biden was too supportive of Israel's actions in Gaza are now returning, energised by El-Sayed's tough tone.

"My red line has been Gaza," said Samraa Luqman, an Arab-American activist in Michigan who voted for Trump in the last presidential election, feeling betrayed by Democrats that year.

"2023 and 2024 have really taught this community a lesson that we are no longer going to be wishy-washy about the issue. It's Gaza or bust," she told me. "If you're not good on Gaza, on Israel, on Palestine, then we don't need you. We don't need you in office, and we don't need to vote for you, no matter what your party affiliation is."

But as El-Sayed has energised voters, he's also alienated others, particularly some who see support for Israel as connected to Jewish safety in the US and feel that antisemitism in their party has grown after the deadly Hamas attacks of October 7.

Zach Nessel is one of those Democrats. And he's increasingly worried about becoming politically homeless.

"We have people who don't think Zionists should have a place in our party, that they should be removed from the party," Nessel told me. "And as a proud Zionist, I don't want to be removed from the Democratic coalition just over this one issue in the Middle East."

Support for Israel became a litmus test in some Democratic primaries this season, leading to mounting resistance to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the longtime influential lobbying group.

But Dann tells me that it's not just Israel that's a litmus test, it's El-Sayed's race itself.

"Abdul El-Sayed's theory of the case is that he can run as an unabashed progressive in a purple state [a state that swings between the 'red' Republican party and 'blue' Democrats] and win because progressive ideas are not only popular if they're communicated correctly, but also activate voters who are not necessarily a normal part of the political process, particularly young people," she said.

If he wins, left-wing candidates will see it as a model, she adds. And if he loses, Democrats in the more centrist wing of the party will see it as evidence that left-wing ideas are out of touch with mainstream voters.

But there are others, like Jim Kessler with Third Way, a centrist think tank, who think Michigan shouldn't be the focus. He pointed out that if Democrats take control of the Senate it'll be because of more centrist candidates: Roy Cooper in North Carolina, Mary Peltola in Alaska, James Talarico in Texas, Josh Turek in Iowa, Adam Hamilton in Kansas. They, he said, are the ones expanding Democrats' odds this cycle. " So the bigger the Democratic victory, the more it seems like the centrist Democrats came through, not the DSA candidates," he said.

DSA-endorsed candidates made gains during the primaries this election cycle, but their ideas are still controversial to many.

" I don't think… the vast majority of working-class people in America are kind of mini socialists," Tanden told me, pointing to reporting that suggests the majority of people who support the DSA are college-educated voters.

" Working-class people are pretty moderate on issues like crime and immigration," she added.

Nonetheless, if Democrats gain the majority, their congressional leaders will have to navigate a group of Democrats in which there will likely be an increase in the loudest and most left-wing voices.

" The Democrats' biggest challenge is to figure out how to actually deliver on running the economy better and making things more affordable, because they've said over and over again and very loudly that's what they're going to do," said Teixeira.

In all likelihood, people will start thinking seriously about the next presidential candidate the day after the midterms.

So, who actually has the momentum: the left flank or the centre?

"I think after the election we'll see a lot of fighting between the factions to claim credit," Teixeira said. " And that will of course feed into the jostling for the presidential nomination for 2028."

Back in Georgia, Tamara and James may disagree on some things, but they both want Democrats to win big on Tuesday.

"I'm a very pragmatic person when it comes to progressive politics," James said. He wants to make it clear he doesn't agree with everything DSA members espouse.

So much of this midterm cycle has also come down to candidate quality - not just the message but the messenger. So I asked both mother and son who their "ideal" Democrat is.

Tamara instantly answered Jon Ossoff, the Democratic senator running for re-election in Georgia.

It's a point of agreement. They both really like their Georgia senator.

Ossoff is seen by many as a rising star of his party. The seat he is contesting is characterised by the Cook Political Report as "likely Democratic" - considered by analysts to be an impressive achievement in a swing state that voted for Trump in 2024.

"He knows how to speak to moderate Republicans, moderate Democrats, and members of the DSA," Tamara said. "He's not afraid to pull any punches… I appreciate how much he talks about corruption."

On Wednesday night, she joined thousands of people just outside Atlanta for a rally to cheer on the senator as former President Barack Obama campaigned for Democrats.

And when Ossoff took the mic, he spoke at length about what he sees as "corruption" in the Trump administration and in American politics, healthcare and corporate money.

And I heard this concern from voters in Georgia this past week, not just at the campaign rally, but at early voting sites in both Republican and Democratic counties.

"We have a corruption crisis," said Richard Schosky as he walked out of the voting booth in north Atlanta, after casting his ballot early. It's an issue that seems to be resonating deeply with voters, although the White House has repeatedly denied any allegations of wrongdoing.

In fact, Dann with the Cook Political Report says "corruption has become one of the central issues of this election".

Still, she added, "Democrats would be foolish to believe that a very good night for them in November is a mandate for the Democratic Party," said Dann.

"They are as almost as unpopular as Republicans and the president."

Lead image: Getty

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