Could Shabana Mahmood be on course to ‘stop the boats’ and weaken Reform?
Home secretary Shabana Mahmood is a rare political beast: a minister who actually wants to get one job done before contemplating the next move. Hence her reported reluctance to move to the Treasury in Andy Burnham’s new government, preferring instead to get on with some ambitious and highly contentious reforms to the asylum and citizenship rules.
These are not yet in place, and the public consultations only ended last month. But are her policies already having an impact on irregular migration?
They are surprising. In terms of Channel crossings, everything seems to be coming down, and at a time of good weather when, traditionally, the traffic tends to trend higher. Thus, there have now been nine consecutive days of no arrivals (from 11 to 19 July), according to the latest data. Overall, in the first half of 2026, 190 boatloads of people have arrived in the UK, compared to 372 vessels in the same period last year. (The size of dinghies has increased significantly as smugglers adapt to increased police activity on French beaches; larger boats now “taxi” around the coast and wait to pick up people offshore).
But the critical number of individual migrants claiming refugee status is also sharply lower. Analysis by The Independent of Home Office data indicates 12,469 people had arrived in the UK on small boats by 10 July – down 43 per cent from the same period in 2025, in which 21,690 had made the dangerous journey.
Experts are puzzled. One series of factors concerns the method of irregular migration, which does evolve. For example, about a decade ago the favoured method was hiding in the back of vehicles making the Channel crossing; relatively few took the risk of a maritime crossing. But improved security at Calais, including heat and breath detection devices and more secure holding bays, plus the plunge in post-Covid traffic, made the smugglers switch methods to the small boats. The number smuggled in lorries, vans and cars plummeted.
Some are thought to be switching to a less risky method of arrival: overstaying on a visa and then disappearing into the grey economy and unregulated accommodation. There is no data on such activity, but it might be increasing, reducing the number making boat crossings.
It may also be that some boats could prefer to land surreptitiously rather than offer themselves up to Border Force or the RNLI. That could certainly happen in the future if the asylum regime becomes more restricted.
Very likely. While attempting to implement its Rwanda deportation plan, the last government simply refused to process asylum claims in the UK, leaving many tens of thousands with plenty of time to drift into illegal work before having their case dealt with. Now, irregular arrivals know they won’t be able to make much money because they will be sent back relatively rapidly, shifting the risk/reward calculation when considering payment to boat gangs.
Certainly the Albanian one has, less so the modest French one. There are few such agreements.
Hard to say, although there have been some significant cases. Cooperation with French, Belgian and German police has also helped, though the French beach patrols can be evaded as the smugglers refine their methods.
Altering the process for achieving full British citizenship may have a deterrent effect, but it would be a remote consideration for anyone prepared to risk their life. On the other hand, the crackdown on dodgy car washes, barbers, vape stores and delivery work may well have reduced the “pull factor” in economic migration.
Yes. The numbers crossing the Mediterranean from North Africa are certainly down, by around a quarter compared to 2025, according to the EU’s border operation, Frontex (with a lag before they get to the Channel). There is a much harsher attitude by the authorities there. For example, the Italian government, with EU money, is funding, equipping and training the Libyan and Tunisian coastguards to intercept people on their way to Europe. Charities say that such enforcement, with no facility to make a claim, is encouraging “reckless and violent conduct” during interceptions at sea.
For many years, news about irregular migration has fuelled various hard-right movements across Europe. For example, the million-plus Syrian refugees who arrived around 2015 helped Ukip to electoral success and boosted the Leave EU campaign the following year.
Online misinformation about migrant crime and asylum hotels has also triggered demonstrations and boosted the fortunes of parties such as Reform UK and Restore. If asylum numbers subside, so does Reform’s relevance.
Sadly for him, it will all be too late for Keir Starmer, but Mahmood will certainly have evidence to strengthen her reputation as someone who can get things done.