Burnham bounce is over, pollsters warn

The “Burnham bounce” has ended just weeks after the new prime minister entered Downing Street, leading pollsters have said, as they warned there would be no point in Labour calling an early election.

Labour surged in the polls by around five to six points – finally leapfrogging Nigel Farage’s Reform UK after 18 months – after Andy Burnham took over from Sir Keir Starmer on 20 July.

But experts say any bounce triggered by the change of leadership appears to have already peaked with Labour failing to make any gains since last week – and even falling behind Reform again in some cases.

It comes as Mr Burnham prepares to face MPs on Tuesday for the first time since getting the keys to No 10. After a series of small giveaways during his summer tour, including removing VAT from fuel bills and capping bus ticket prices at £2, the PM will be under pressure to lay out wider policies to move on from predecessor – especially with a difficult Budget in October.

Top pollster Professor Sir John Curtice told The Independent: “I believe that the ‘Burnham bounce’ came to an end after two weeks.”

He added: “There is no rational basis for Labour to call an election now.”

Sir John pointed out that, during polls throughout August, Labour had – at most – an average one point lead over Reform.

While some polls give Labour a lead of up to four points, and others a lead of up to three for Reform, Mr Burnham’s party are generally seeing scores in the mid-20s. It is around seven points ahead of Sir Keir’s low of 17 per cent, but still well below the party’s election share in 2024 of 32 per cent.

One poll published this weekend gave a much bleaker look, suggesting Labour are only up two points – to 23 per cent – compared to the end of July. Reform are unchanged on 23 per cent, according to the poll by Politico.

Polling expert Lord Robert Hayward agreed there is “a strong possibility that the Burnham bounce has peaked”.

He added that Labour’s boost may have been linked to Mr Farage and Green Party leader Zack Polanski taking a popularity hit due to scandals within their parties.

He told The Independent: “That bounce could have reasonably been caused, in part, by a decline in support for Green Party leader Zack Polanski and Farage – as much as Burnham not being Keir.”

Although the polls show a mixed picture, six different surveys published in the week between 17 and 23 August suggested Labour would still struggle to convincingly beat Reform UK in any national election.

Labour had no change in two and went backwards in three polls, by -1 or -2 per cent. They had a gain of just one per cent in the sixth.

The first poll of last week (from 24 August) by More in Common again showed Labour on no change, although they were four points ahead of Reform. A Find Out Now poll saw Labour drop one point to 22 per cent with Reform up two, to 25 per cent.

Meanwhile, a Survation poll on Friday gave Labour a three-point lead – up by one to 27 per cent, but helped by Reform slipping two points to 24 per cent. And over the weekend, an Opinium poll had both Labour and Reform unchanged, with a Labour leader of 27 per cent to Reform’s 25 per cent.

A more positive poll for Labour by BMG on Friday suggested the Burnham bounce was continuing with Labour having a four-point lead over Reform. But Labour’s share of the vote had still dropped by one point.

Lord Hayward concluded: “There is not a strong basis from which to be planning to call an early election.”

He said Labour could still dramatically improve or worsen its standing, but that it would be down to policies and decision-making rather than Mr Burnham replacing Sir Keir as leader.

Labour MPs had been concerned that the new prime minister may try to secure a proper mandate by calling an election between October this year and May 2027, although Mr Burnham has previously insisted he would not call an early election.

Pressure for an early election comes from the restrictions of Labour’s 2024 manifesto which, among other things, precludes them from raising the major taxes.

Mr Burnham has already conceded on tax and borrowing policy, as well as sticking to Sir Keir’s Brexit red lines, that he feels bound by Labour’s 2024 election mandate and would need a fresh election to make significant changes.

Sir John said Labour had received a boost of around six per cent since Sir Keir announced his resignation, including a Starmer “unbounce” – worth around two points – and around four to five points since Mr Burnham took over.

But he described this as “normal” for when a party changes from an unpopular prime minister. It has parallels with Boris Johnson taking over from Theresa May and Rishi Sunak from Liz Truss.

Mr Burnham is due to speak in the Commons on Tuesday. While he had his first trip to Kyiv where he gave Ukraine the blueprint for storm shadow missiles in the positive, he has also been hit by the harsh realities of government.

Having declared that his would be a “cost of living government”. the prime minister this week saw the energy price cap go up an inflation busting four per cent this week hitting domestic and business bills ahead of the winter.

There are also continuing questions over where he will get the money from to fund some of his giveaways including taking VAT off energy bills and capping bus tickets to £2. He will also come under pressure to explain what he will do to fund defence.

YouGov founder Peter Kellner, a Labour Party member, said: “Among established pollsters, all polls conducted in August have ranged between a four point Labour lead and a three point Reform lead.

“Given sampling error, they all suggest the popular vote is too close to call. But I do agree that if they stay anything like this, there will be no early election.

“I reckon that Labour needs a sustained double-digit lead, say for six to eight weeks, before it makes sense for Burnham to put a landslide majority at risk.”