Given the narrowness of the outcome of the 2016 EU referendum, we might wonder how successful it has been in identifying a “settled will” of the population.
Perhaps the narrow majority in favour of Brexit has failed to withstand the test of time?
Even if that is not the case, we should still ask whether being outside the EU has turned out as well as voters had anticipated and thereby affirmed in their minds the decision a majority took in 2016 – or do some now regret the choice they made a decade ago?
Over 500 polls have asked people since June 2016 how they would vote if there were another referendum.
It reveals that the balance of opinion on Brexit has changed markedly. It seems that, after opinion having oscillated a little between 2016 and 2021, not long thereafter, there was a decisive and consistent shift away from Brexit.
As a result, the success of the 2016 ballot as an exercise in direct democracy can be disputed.
It appears that for many, it (the economy) has come to be regarded as having proved markedly worse in practice than they had anticipated.
Shortly before the referendum there was a widespread expectation that immigration would be lower as a result of leaving the EU.
However, although Brexit saw a marked reduction in migration to/from the EU, there was a sharp increase in migration from outside. Voters seem to have reacted to this unexpected experience by blaming Brexit.
Although there was a widespread feeling that being inside the EU compromised Britain’s sovereignty, [Brexit] is also widely thought not to have made much practical difference to the country’s ability to make its own decisions.
All in all, then, Brexit has proven a disappointment for many voters. Most thought immigration would fall as a result of leaving the EU. In practice, many now believe it has resulted in higher levels. While some always had doubts about the economic consequences of leaving, there is now a widespread view that the economy is worse off as a result.
There was a common perception that being in the EU constrained Britain’s sovereignty, but people are not sure it has been enhanced by Brexit, while there is a widespread feeling that Britain now has less influence in the world.
Given this evidence, it is perhaps not surprising that the public have increasingly been of the view that Britain got a bad deal out of negotiations with the EU.
By 2023 – after the shock of the Liz Truss “fiscal event” – the widespread view among Remain voters that Brexit was bad for the economy had become almost universal.
The change of outlook has been even more dramatic in the case of immigration, both among Remain and Leave voters. Most backing Leave reckoned immigration would fall if the UK left the EU. As many as 85 per cent expressed that view.
By 2023, Leave voters were rapidly losing confidence in this… and that trend continued into 2024. On this issue at least, the hopes that Leave voters once had of Brexit appear to have been thoroughly dashed.
Remain supporters were always quite heavily inclined to the view that Brexit would reduce Britain’s influence in the world. In contrast, Leave voters had to some degree anticipated Britain would have more influence, but, since the UK left, they have become slightly inclined to the view that Brexit has reduced the country’s influence.
Brexit has, then, largely failed to live up to Leave voters’ expectations. This suggests it is unsurprising that support for being outside the EU is much lower now than it was when a narrow majority voted in 2016 to Leave.
At the same time, voters have been markedly pessimistic about the economic consequences since the Liz Truss “fiscal event”, at which point support for rejoining the EU enjoyed a clear lead for the first time.
Central to the change of heart about Brexit among Leave voters is the feeling that it has not served Britain’s economy well.
The other (factor) is the much higher level of support for joining the EU among those who did not vote in 2016.
In conclusion the narrow vote in favour of Brexit has not withstood the test of time particularly well. Within a year, the balance of opinion was already beginning to swing against the decision, and by the time the UK left, there was a clear if narrow majority against.
Within a couple of years of leaving, that lead had widened into a double-digit one. Central to this has been disappointment and doubt about the economic fallout from Brexit. Many Leave voters are also disappointed by the failure of Brexit to occasion a fall in immigration.
Our evidence suggests the 2016 referendum has failed to resolve the debate about whether Britain should be inside or outside the EU. The country now finds itself outside an institution of which a modest majority at least would like to be a member.
Maybe the balance of economic advantage will seem more favourable to Brexit in future. But, for the time being at least, it seems that a significant body of voters have decided that being outside the EU is not worth it.
Adapted from The Brexit Effect: 2016 – 2026 edited by Anthony Seldon and published by Cambridge University Press on 18 June (£16.99)
Sign up to our free Europe: The Way Back newsletter here, or by entering your email address using the form below:
What you will get by joining:
