Recent polling seems to indicate a “Badenoch Bounce” on the back of the most trouble-free Conservative Party conference in some year. Tories seemed united, her leadership secure, and the public seems also to be taking notice – her personal approval ratings are second only to Andy Burnham. A new YouGov poll puts the party in second place, just ahead of Reform UK who are now in third place.
But the Conservatives shouldn’t get too excited.
Yes. Badenoch’s improving recognition, policy announcements and forceful personality have helped to slowly drag her party back up in the polls, and the sense of terminal decline that set in after the 2024 general election defeat has been somewhat lifted.
In comparison to the nadir to which the party plumbed in the spring of 2025, when Reform enjoyed a long period of leading in the polls, the position has radically altered. Back then, the Tories were on around 18 per cent, and Reform luxuriating on 30 per cent or higher – and a good 10 points ahead of sir Keir Starmer’s Labour. Since then, Reform has done plenty to lose public trust and Andy Burnham has attracted some defectors back to Labour. But the Badenoch effect is also real enough.
Popular – or populist – policies, such as cutting social security and inheritance tax, have cut through and the loss of noisy dissidents such as Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman means the party is clearly more united. However the Tory brand remains fairly toxic and the public hasn’t entirely forgotten austerity, Brexit, Partygate, Liz Truss’ mini Budget, and all the sleaze, chaos and confusion that marked their last period in office.
All three main parties are now fairly closely bunched together within the pollsters’ usual margin of error, with Labour now a little bit ahead.
Yes. Even now, their vote share in polls is below where Rishi Sunak ended up when he lost the general election. They lost 674 councillors in the 2025 local elections, and another 563 this year, and have seen little success in parliamentary by-elections with the exception of a win in Aberdeen driven largely by local issues. The Tory front bench aren’t even household names in their own kitchen, and if a general election were held now it is quite possible that Reform would win more seats in the Commons (depending on regional swings and tactical voting patterns). And while the Liberal Democrats are having their own mini leadership crisis, they remain strong enough to be a “roadblock” on the Tories’ path back to power.
Regain a reputation for competence with fully detailed and costed plans for the public finances: what exactly she’d cut, and who would be affected. Carry on distancing herself from Nigel Farage’s increasing extremism, and thus reassure voters that supporting the Conservatives won’t usher Farage and his “weird” party (her words) into power. A rethink on Europe might also help, given that Brexit is so unpopular now; she won’t be able to avoid the issue forever.
